Vinicius Diniz Schuabb

My research as an applied microeconomist lies at the intersection of development economics and economic history. I study the historical roots of development, focusing on how migration, education, culture, and political institutions shape local development. On the policy side, I design geospatial methods for program evaluation, with particular attention to populations facing climate risks and socioeconomic vulnerabilities.

JOB MARKET PAPER

Once Welcomed, Then Scapegoated: The Long-lasting Consequences of Assimilation Policies in the Wake of Mass Migration

• Available at ArXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.02836

This paper examines the short- and long-term effects of immigrant assimilation policies in Brazil following the Mass Migration period. I focus on the Nationalization Campaign, launched by the federal government amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment during the Great Depression and the two World Wars. Using newly assembled archival data spanning the twentieth century, I assess the impact of these policies on the educational outcomes of immigrants and their descendants, following the forced closure of hundreds of immigrant-community schools. In the short term, the campaign significantly reduced educational attainment among targeted immigrant groups across state, municipal, and individual levels. In the long term, immigrants who were school-age during the campaign attained less education over their lifetimes, with adverse effects extending into the second generation. The magnitude of these effects was mediated by the degree of cultural proximity between immigrant groups and native Brazilians. These findings underscore the enduring consequences of assimilationist policies and offer insights for contemporary debates on immigration and education policy.

PUBLICATIONS

• Fassarella et al. (2024). Social Mobility and CCT Programs: The Bolsa Família Program in Brazil. World Development Perspectives. Vol. 35. 100624. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2024.100624

WORKING PAPERS

• Social Policy as a Buffer: A Geospatial Analysis of Climate Change's Impact on Migration Among Vulnerable Agricultural Producers. (with Valdemar Pinho Neto, Sergio Guimarães and Paulo Tafner.)
• Resilience in Adversity: How Social Policies Amend Labor and Capital Mobility in the Face of Extreme Weather Events. (with Valdemar Pinho Neto, Pedro Maia, Sergio Guimarães and Paulo Tafner.)