Five Months of Electoral Campaign in One of the World's Largest Democracies

It will take months of fierce campaigning to win the minds of 130 million Brazilian voters in the presidential elections scheduled for October 3, 2010. The electoral contest is between Dilma Rousseff, candidate for the PT, Lula's Workers' Party, and José Serra, candidate of the PSDB, moderate social-democrats, the main opposition party. Polls have been consistently giving Serra an advantage, although the gap has closed in the last few weeks. Now Serra leads by 5 to 10 percentage points. But the opposition will have to fight hard to score a victory. Dilma Rousseff is Lula's candidate, and Lula has 80% approval ratings. Brazil was among the last economies to be hit by the recession and among the first to resume growth: GDP grew by 1% in 2009 and is forecasted to grow by 5% in 2010. It's not only good economic news that support the president's popularity. Since the start of his mandate, Lula has put the struggle against poverty and social exclusion at the center of his government's program. His welfare programs have had a huge impact on 11 million of Brazilian poor families. It's only logical he wants to transfer this political capital to Rousseff: it's not yet sure if and when it will occur. Serra presents himself to voters as the candidate that can ensure that Brazil stays on the growth path blazed by Lula ("Brazil can do more" is his slogan). Although in the opposition, Serra styles himself as a continuity candidate, building on his good record as governor of the Paulista state. Lula and the Workers' party are trying to persuade voters is that the results obtained depend on a progressive political philosophy that only Dilma Rousseff can carry on. Lula is in fact highlighting the gulf separating him from his predecessor Cardoso, who belonged to same party as Serra. In order to show his penchant for leftist policies, Lula could energize industrial and social policy.

There are growing signs of this in the last few months: the Vale mining company has been pressured into buying Brazilian steels and ships for its production needs; the proposal is on the table to constitute a sovereign fund fueled by oil receipts and investing in education and social and environmental protection. It's not by chance that on March 29, just before Rousseff resigned from Lula's cabinet (as the electoral law requires), Lula announced the second phase of the Program for Accelerating Growth (Pac2), which calls for infrastructural investment to the tune of $880 billion, 60% spent over the 2011-2014 period. If elected, Rousseff would be in charge of Pac2, after overseeing the first phase launched in 2007. The next presidential elections are also very important for Italy, not only for the cultural links connecting the two countries (30 million Brazilians have Italian origins), but also because on January 1, 2011, the year devoted to "Italy in Brazil" will start, together with the new presidency. It will be unique opportunity to strengthen the economic and cultural relations between the two countries.