Reducing One Dependence Without Creating Another

Europe’s green transition is widely presented as a path toward greater energy security. By reducing reliance on fossil fuels and expanding renewable energy, the European Union aims to limit its exposure to external shocks and geopolitical pressure. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the risks of excessive dependence on a single supplier, this ambition has become both urgent and widely shared. Yet, as with globalization itself, the transition raises a familiar question: how to reduce vulnerability without simply reshaping it.

The rapid exit from Russian pipeline gas has demonstrated Europe’s capacity for adaptation under pressure. In the short term, American liquefied natural gas (LNG) has played a stabilizing and largely constructive role. US LNG helped Europe avoid shortages, calm markets, and maintain economic activity during an unprecedented energy shock. In this sense, it has been an essential component of Europe’s energy security strategy and a tangible expression of transatlantic cooperation.

European Structural Challenges

At the same time, reliance on LNG highlights structural challenges that deserve attention. Liquefaction, transport and regasification make LNG inherently costlier than pipeline gas. As a result, European energy prices remain persistently higher than those of key competitors, particularly the United States itself. Over time, this price gap risks weighing on industrial competitiveness and investment, especially in energy-intensive sectors. Moreover, while the transatlantic partnership rests on shared values and longstanding alliances, energy policy in the United States inevitably reflects domestic priorities, regulatory choices, and political cycles. From a European perspective, diversification remains preferable to long-term reliance on any single external source, even a trusted one.

A Technological Dependence

Renewable energy offers a more durable solution. Wind and solar are local resources: once installed, they reduce exposure to volatile global fuel markets and cannot be interrupted by closing a valve or redirecting a shipment. In this sense, the green transition promises a structural break from the geopolitics of fossil fuels. But energy systems depend not only on resources, but also on technologies, industrial capacity, and critical raw materials. Here, Europe faces a different form of dependence. China holds a dominant position in the production of solar panels, batteries and the processing of rare earths and other critical inputs essential to clean energy technologies. This dominance reflects long-term investment and strategic industrial policy, but it also creates highly concentrated supply chains. Accelerating decarbonization by relying almost exclusively on imported technologies may achieve climate targets, yet it risks exposing Europe to new strategic vulnerabilities.

Objective: Resilience

Against this backdrop, the debate on Europe’s energy mix has become more pragmatic. While national preferences continue to differ, there is a growing awareness that system stability, affordability and security matter alongside decarbonization. In this context, existing low-carbon generation capacity (whatever its source) can contribute to smoothing the transition and reducing pressure on gas markets, without altering the central role assigned to renewables.

The policy challenge for Europe is therefore one of balance. The objective is neither self-sufficiency nor disengagement from global markets; it is resilience. Building domestic industrial capacity, diversifying suppliers, investing in recycling, maintaining flexibility in the energy mix, and strengthening partnerships with like-minded countries can all help reduce risk while preserving openness.

European integration itself was born from a strategic insight: that shared control over coal and steel could transform vulnerability into stability and cooperation. The green transition calls for the same spirit. If guided by foresight rather than urgency alone, it can become not just a response to climate change, but a new chapter in Europe’s long effort to align economic openness with strategic autonomy.