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The propagation of shocks is the focus of one of the six paper by Bocconi academics being presented at SAMO 2010, the Sixth Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output, at our University till July 22

The range of subjects dealt in the six papers being presented by Bocconi academics at SAMO 2010, the Sixth Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output - at our University till July 22 -is really impressive.

Alessandra Cillo (Università Bocconi) and Philippe Delquié (GWU School of Business), in A Simple and Flexible Mean-Risk Model reconsider a behavioural model they introduced years ago and apply it to investment decisions. They balance the existence of mathematical properties which make the model usable and the adherence to behavioural and intuitive considerations which make it realistic.

Francesca Beccacece and Emanuele Borgonovo (both Department of decision sciences and ELEUSI) in Analytical Properties of High Dimensional Model Representation deal with the computation of the quantitative assessment of multivariate objective functions, commonly used in decision-making problems. The authors derive the conditions at which the quantitative value of the multivariate function can be derived as the sum of the values for each variable, thus obtaining a strong simplification.

Borgonovo e Curtis Smith (Idaho Engineering National Laboratories) in Total Reliability Importance in Space PSA deal with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models, which describe the behaviour of complex systems, especially in the case of crises or accidents. In their paper, which refines a method they devised in the past, Borgonovo and Smith identify the change thresholds of some variables beyond which a decision maker must consider not only the change in the single variable, but also the interaction among variables. The method is applied to the model used by NASA to support risk analysis in space missions.

Borgonovo, William Caistings e Stefano Tarantola (both Joint Research Center of the European Commission, Ispra) in Theorems and Analytical Test Cases in Moment Independent Sensitivity Analysis, establish the theoretical framework of a new group of sensitivity analysis methods known as Moment Independent.

Marco Percoco (Department of institutional analysis and public management and CERTET) and Emanuele Borgonovo, in Uncertainty Importance and Risk-Based Decision Making in the Inoperability Input-Output Model apply a moment independent sensitivity analysis technique to a model which describes the propagation of demand changes from an industry to others in case of shocks such as natural disasters or terroristic attacks. Thanks to this model, the authors write, it is possible to identify the most effective policies and interventions to circumscribe the effects of the shock.

Irmela Zentner (Electricitè de France, Lamsid, Laboratory for Mechanics of Aging Industrial Structures), Emanuele Borgonovo, Alessandra Pellegri (Università Bocconi) and Stefano Tarantola (Joint Research Center, European Commission) present the outcome of an ELEUSI research project in the paper Use of Moment Independent Importance Measures in the Framework of Seismic Fragility Analysis. The paper applies sensitivity analysis to the seismic risk assessment in nuclear plants. The common assessment methodology consists in drawing fragility curves, which express the probability of failure of a component for any given seismic input. The technique proposed by the authors permits to allows the sensitivity of such curves with respect to model parameters.

Research