Why Cuba?
President Donald Trump's recent remarks about taking Cuba — "whether I free it or take it" — reveal far deeper geopolitical realities than their informal tone suggests. His words exemplify what international relations historians call "Great Power Politics," the principle that might determines international relations, dating back to the early 19th century when powerful nations regulated their relationships through a simple doctrine: "might is right."
Trump's statement also reflects a Darwinian perspective on state competition, introduced at the end of the 19th century by the biological geopolitical school, which justified European imperial expansion as a natural right of the stronger over the weaker. The Nazis formalized this concept as Lebensraum, while the US encapsulated it in the more palatable idea of "manifest destiny."
Historical Context: Why Cuba?
Cuba's strategic importance stems from its geographic position — an "air carrier" parked just one hundred kilometers from Florida's southern coast. During the 19th century, under Spanish rule, Cuba exported staple products like sugar and cocoa, primarily to the US. The island became what geopolitical analyst Alfred Mahan called a key hotspot for US imperial strategy in the hemisphere.
The 1898 Spanish-American War marked a turning point. The US intervened supporting local revolutionaries against Spain, then occupied Cuba for nearly four years. Following occupation, the island endured decades of subjugation to American economic and political interests, protected by US-friendly regimes. This arrangement lasted until the late 1950s, when Fidel Castro's revolution overthrew the existing order.
During the Cold War, Cuba became a Soviet satellite, subsidized by Moscow for geopolitical reasons. The island symbolized Cold War contradictions — a thorn in America's side comparable to West Berlin for the Soviets. After the Soviet Union's collapse, Cuba became dependent on other Latin American states like Venezuela, as well as China and Russia, struggling with a centrally planned but fragile economy.
Strategic Importance Today
Two critical factors explain renewed US interest in Cuba.
First, the broader US grand strategy aims to strengthen control over the Caribbean and Pacific regions. This includes potential reassertion of influence over the Panama Canal — a strategic waterway built by the US nearly a century ago to connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Current US policy represents a modern "remake" of historical imperial ambitions.
Second (even if less mentioned), Cuba ranks among the world's five largest producers of nickel and cobalt — rare earth minerals (REMs) increasingly vital for modern technology. These two commodities account for a significant portion of Cuba's GDP and one-third of its exports. Most exports go to China, with substantial portions reaching Europe. China has recently strengthened economic and technological collaboration with Cuba, particularly in renewable energy and REM extraction technologies. This directly clashes with US efforts to strengthen hemispheric control and counterbalance Chinese influence in Central and South America — essentially a new “Cold War” scenario.
The European Dimension
Europe faces an overlooked but critical crisis. As a recent Economist article noted, the EU has "sleepwalked into all kinds of dependencies" — from American digital services to Russian energy. Its reliance on Chinese rare earths, crucial for electric vehicles, wind turbines and fighter jets, represents perhaps the hardest dependency to escape.
Countries including the Netherlands, France, Italy and Spain are among Cuba's main trading partners, particularly in nickel, cobalt and zinc. Given Europe's technological backwardness in this competitive arena among great powers, Cuba's geopolitical future directly impacts European strategic autonomy in rare earth minerals. The silence surrounding Cuba during recent weeks, while global attention focuses on Middle Eastern events, obscures a fundamental reality: a significant portion of Europe's future strategic independence is at stake in this remote island bordering the Gulf of Mexico.
