When the Heat Rises, So Does the Green Vote
In an era where climate change dominates global discussions, a study has uncovered a significant link between rising temperatures and shifts in political and environmental attitudes across Europe. The research (“Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting”), published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America and conducted by Piero Stanig and Raya Muttarak (both of Bocconi Department of Social and Political Sciences, Muttarak is also affiliated with the University of Bologna), Jacopo Bassetto (Pompeu Fabra University), with Roman Hoffmann and Jonas Peisker of Austria’s IIASA, analyzed individual-level European Social Survey (ESS) data from 25 countries over a decade. The paper shows the extent to which direct experiences with extreme weather events impact voters' climate concerns and their support for Green parties.
The climate's political ripple effects
Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, and the impacts of climate change are already evident. In 2026 alone, repeated heatwaves, prolonged drought, exceptionally low river flows and widespread wildfires affected large parts of the continent. Western Europe recorded its warmest summer on record. These are no longer distant warnings, but events that increasingly shape people’s daily lives and may also shape public perceptions and political behavior. Previous studies have highlighted these shifts but often focused on isolated regions or specific events. This study takes a broader approach, leveraging data from the European Social Survey and climate records to examine how firsthand exposure to heat extremes influences attitudes and voting across diverse European regions. “Understanding how political behavior is affected by direct experience of climate-change related events plays a key role in identifying mechanisms underlying public support for climate action, which is fundamental for tackling climate change,” Raya Muttarak explains.
Heat and green ideals
The data shows that the more individuals were exposed to extreme heat, the more likely they were to express concern about climate change, feel personal responsibility for mitigating it, and vote for Green parties. Quantitatively, each additional degree of excess temperature during heat spells increased the likelihood of being worried about climate change by 4 percentage points and voting for Green parties by 2.8 percentage points.
Interestingly, the study found demographic nuances in these shifts. Men and less-educated individuals, who traditionally exhibit lower levels of environmental concern, showed the most pronounced increases in pro-environmental attitudes after experiencing extreme heat. “That personal experience contributes to bridging the gaps between the groups less engaged and more engaged in climate-related issues suggests that effective communication strategies about the threat of climate change may help increase awareness and public support for climate policy,” Piero Stanig adds.
However, the effects were not uniform across regions. Wealthier areas and those with lower greenhouse gas emissions showed stronger responses to extreme heat than economically disadvantaged or high-emission regions. This disparity underscores the complex interplay between economic conditions and environmental priorities.
Shaping policy with the climate in mind
Tailored strategies are needed to address the economic concerns of less affluent regions while emphasizing the tangible benefits of climate action. The researchers warn that neglecting these dynamics could lead to resistance or even backlash against green initiatives. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of personal experience in fostering climate awareness. As Piero Stanig puts it, “This is the first study to present large-scale evidence at the individual level spanning 25 countries over a decade on how firsthand experiences of temperature extremes influence climate change attitudes and voting behavior. In particular, we underline the importance of demographic, economic and regional characteristics and the interplay among them in shaping differential responses to exposure to temperature shocks.”
