What Will the World Be Like After the Crisis?
With the storm that has been hitting financial markets and the real economy alike, economists usually have the last word. However, the geopolitical order will also be effected, and will need to be carefully evaluated. Angelo Panebianco, political expert and International Relations professor in the Political Science faculty at the University of Bologna, will discuss this topic Thursday 28 May with Domenico Siniscalco, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Morgan Stanley International, during the fourth discussion in the Economy and the Open Society. The appointment, entitled "After the Storm: Instructions for Survival," will be introduced by Severino Salvemini, Full Professor in Organization Theory at Bocconi, and moderated by Corriere della Sera journalist Aldo Cazzullo. Final considerations regarding the 2009 edition of the forum will be left to Ferruccio de Bortoli, Director of the Corriere, and Guido Tabellini, Bocconi Rector.
From a political point of view, this crisis will create a weakening of the hegemony of the United States which will impact the world panorama. "In any case, there will be an acceleration of trends and effects that reflect upon Europe and the Middle East," explains Angelo Panebianco. Globalization, which quickly multiplies international trade, continues at the same rate as the development of democracy, both of which are connected to the liberal US hegemony that has guaranteed a certain stability in the international order. "Globalization needs a hegemony. What will happen to it if the power of the US is diminished by the crisis?" asks Panebianco, underlining how little economists look at political conditions in their evaluation of the future of this recession. "Considering this as well, the conclusion can be drawn that globalization, while not coming to an end, will weaken and with the strengthening of Russia and China, the process of spreading democracy will undergo a setback." A decreasing ability of the United States to give orders, and without a Europe that is able to substitute the US in this task, it is also improbable that "the degree of competition in the Middle East will increase," concludes the political expert.