What the Climate Will Be Like in 2030
In 2007, the EU approved a climate-energy package with three objectives by 2020: a 20% cut in greenhouse gases emissions with respect to 1990; increase to 20% in the contribution of renewable sources to the energy mix; a 20% increase in energy efficiency. These objectives have provided a clear framework of reference for the actions of both Member States, forced to draft their own specific national plans, and energy companies. Given the long gestation of energy projects, companies and governments have asked the EU to define the objectives for 2030 as well, and last March the European Commission published a Green Paper to open the discussion on the basis of the a balance sheet of the results achieved so far.
The objective of -20% in climate-altering emissions could be reached already this year. The crisis has played the larger role, by decreasing production and consumption, rather than willful efforts to do so. Also, many critics point out that while Europe reduces its emissions, that has not halted their global increase. Between 1990 and 2010, China increased its CO2 emissions by a factor of five with respect to the size of EU emissions cuts. Without a global climate agreement, further efforts in this direction could negatively affect the competitiveness of certain European industries.
As far as renewables are concerned, last spring a report issued by the Commission thus concluded: "Data on the progress of renewables show that, while the EU as a whole is aligned with 2020 objectives, there are Member States that must undertake additional efforts. Also, the analysis suggests there is reason to worry about further progress". But if the Commission fears that the 20% target will not be reached, major power companies are complaining about disloyal competition from renewables with respect to traditional power sources, and this could endanger investment and thus the security of the electrical supply.
On the one hand, the EU fostered the birth and development of a competitive market for the sale of hydrocarbon-based and nuclear energy production, on the other it has given a preferential route to energy producers from renewable sources, who are given a guaranteed price of sale and priority of use.
Lastly, the goal for energy efficiency is the most ill-defined of the three, and thus the one most at risk of not being attained. It's unclear whether the objective is to increase efficiency or reduce total energy consumption. Also, the commitment is not binding for Member States, not even under the 2012 EU Directive. This was drafted on the premise that, without additional effort, only half of the 2020 objective will be achieved.
Predictably, the consulting process opened by the Green Paper has brought diverging views among Member States to the fore. On one side there are countries (especially in the Union's East) that would like to maintain only the objective of reductions in emissions (the figure most agreed on is a 40% cut by 2030) leaving it to the markets and States to regulate the progress of renewables and energy efficiency. On the opposing side, there are countries (in the Union's North and Center) that want to maintain all three objectives and make them more binding. Other countries have kept an intermediate position: they favor a solution that sets targets only on emissions and renewables.
The Commission is now drafting an early proposal for 2030 which should be made public before the year's end. However, persistent disagreement and the fact that the Commission is near the end of its mandate give reason to think that the issue won't be dealt with in the next few months. It's very likely that the discussion will restart after the 2014 elections for the European Parliament, during the semester of Italian Presidency of the EU.