A Revolution Does Not Mean It's Spring

In 2010 the president of Tunisia at the time, Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali, speaking to a US Secretary of State visiting Tunis, said with satisfaction that he was grateful that Tunisia was located in Maghreb instead of Mashriq, meaning the stable part of Northern Africa and not the seditious Middle East. He did not yet know that at the beginning of 2011 the immolation of the street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi would bring about the end of his over 20 year "reign" and would trigger a series of events that would generally be referred to as the Arab Spring. After the explosion of the Jasmine Revolution and the rapid fall of the Mubarak and Qaddafi regimes as well, a fourth wave of democratization was discussed, which would involve the entire Arab world.

Unfortunately, the reality of matters four years later is much different. As illustrated in the recently published book (J.O. Frosini, F. Biagi, eds, Political and Constitutional Transitions in North Africa. Actors and Factors, London, 2014), there were several political and constitutional transitions in Northern Africa, but (for now) only the Tunisian revolution can be considered a true democratic transition. Regarding Morocco, in fact, due to King Mohammed VI's cunning, the country resisted the winds of change by approving the 2011 Constitution, which introduced several limited changes to the structure of the government, but the Moroccan regime remains (for now) hybrid and non-democratic-pluralist. Algeria, far from being involved in the Arab Spring, was however the first Arab country to experience a revolution at the end of the '80s, which was bloodily repressed by a regime that still endures today thanks to proceeds from natural gas and the prevalent role of Sonatrach (Société Nationale pour la Recherche, la Production, le Transport, la Transformation, et la Commercialisation des Hydrocarbures). Libya, though the success of the revolution that led to the fall of the Qaddafi regime was the culmination of the international community's involvement, today the impasse that the Libyan transition is undergoing is due to the substantial absence of the international community with the consequence that the country risks falling prey to ISIS. Lastly, Egypt quickly experienced a revolution and a counter-revolution with the approval of two constitutions: Morsi's in 2012 and General Al Sissi's in 2014. Both laws, however, have roots in the Constitution from 1971 and it is no coincidence that the military maintains the reins of power.

Only Tunisia begins 2015 by leaving a year full of success behind it: with the adoption of a new constitution and the democratic renewal of its institutions. On 26 October the parliamentary elections named Nidaa Tounes victorious (39.6%), a new secular party led by Béji Caïd Essebsi, while Ennahda, the moderate Islamic party that was a leading player in the constituent phase, asserted its place as the country's second party with 31.7%. The result of the presidential elections in November were in line with the legislative elections and a head to head between the outgoing president Moncef Marzouki for the Congress of the Republic party and Béji Caïd Essebsi for Nidaa Tounes ended with the latter's victory (former Prime Minister of the second ad interim post revolution government, as well as former Minister of Justice during Bourguiba's presidency).

A good 4,000 independent electoral observers were organized in the area from the National Democratic Institute, the International Republican Institute and the Tunisian organization for the protection of human rights, Mourakiboun. A demonstration of the validity of the vote and the success of the elections came from a declaration by American observer Andrew Natsios, who said Tunisia "could represent the most successful democratic transition in the Arab world." Of course this is also our hope, along with the hope of seeing the Spring once again burst out in other parts of Northern Africa and the Middle East.