Independence Would Mean a Lonelier Scotland
On September 18, the Scottish people will be asked to vote on the country's independence from the UK. Many are wondering what would be the legal consequences of an electoral victory of the independentists.
If a majority of Scots voted yes to independence, the first consequence would be the dissolution of the 1707 Union with England (and Wales and Northern Ireland). In fact, the unwritten constitution of the current United Kingdom does not contain provisions that could have prevented the call for a referendum that could lead to Scotland's secession, unlike what happens in Spain, where Catalans have been prevented from holding a referendum on the country's independence from Madrid, because of constitutional barriers to such consultation, with the Spanish Constitutional Court ruling that Barcelona's unilateral referendum is illegitimate.
From the point of view of international law, the resulting rump Great Britain would be considered the successor state of the UK, while Scotland would constitute a new state. Concerning membership in international organizations and agencies, each organization has its peculiar rules to deal with the matter. If the rest of Great Britain were considered as successor of the UK, it would maintain its UN seat, including permanent membership in the Security Council, while Scotland would have to apply for UN membership as a new state.
What about Scotland in Europe? As far as the European Council and the European Convention on Human Rights are concerned, using the 2006 precedent of Serbia and Montenegro, the rest of Great Britain would continue to be a European Council member and signatory of the Convention, while independent Scotland would still be covered by the European Convention but would have to apply for membership to the Council.
As far as the EU is concerned, there is no precedent of a member state losing parts of its territory because of secession. Thus the rest of Great Britain would remain a EU member state, while Scotland would have to ask for accession to the EU as a new state. This raises a number of issues, but one stands out. In fact, existing EU rules impose that new members eventually adopt the euro as their currency. This would be a major problem for Scottish nationalists, who have repeatedly stated they want to maintain the pound sterling, even in an independent Scotland.
All this does not mean that it is unconceivable that Scotland automatically becomes a EU member state, but this will depend on the current members' will and the impression is that there are countries which are strongly opposed to this happening, precisely because of the repercussions it would have ontheirnational unity (e.g. the aforementioned case of Spain, but also Belgium, and others). Thus if a majority of Scots opted for independence (an April 9 poll puts the no vote at 45% and the yes vote at 40%), they would exit two Unions, not just one.
Lastly, an important remark. It should be remembered that the referendum's promoters want an independent Scotland, but not a republican Scotland. Thus Queen Elizabeth II would remain Scotland's head of state, even if the country became independent from England.