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Climate Change: Everybody Waiting

, by Luigi De Paoli - senior professor di economia e politica dell'energia, translated by Alex Foti
At the COP15 in Copenhagen in December 2009, an international agreement was reached to limit the increase of mean global temperatures to +2°C. But nobody knows the amount of greenhouse gas emissions this corresponds to, and so everybody is waiting for someone else to act

Every year, the countries that have signed the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meet to discuss its implementation. The number of countries (i.e. the "parties") now convening is 196.

The 15th Conference of Parties (COP15) gathered in Copenhagen in December, attracting the attention of the world's media. The climate summit ended with the signing of the so-called Copenhagen Accord (some have dubbed it the "Copenhagen Discord" because the Conference was marred by disagreements).

The concluding document says that the increase in global temperature must not exceed 2 °C; that cooperation must be strengthened for the peak in emissions to be reached as soon as possible (so that the actual decrease can start), acknowledging the fact that developing countries need extra time; that by the end of January 2010 OECE and EIT countries were supposed to set emissions targets.

The accord foresees financing to reduce deforestation in developing countries and the a 30 billion commitment over the 2010-2012 three-year period, which would reach $100 billion by 2020, to help less developed countries to adapt to climate change. Finally there is the creation of a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund to manage the finance of climate aid.

However this commitments are vague and have not been followed by concrete acts. Let's start with the money promised to LDCs: who pays? Who will be the actual beneficiaries?

Secondly, what's the level of concentration of CO2 that corresponds to +2°C? We don't know for sure, and the Copenhagen Accord, lacking operational aspects, doesn't help to do something about that, either.

Let's take the Kyoto Protocol, which at least contains targets for emissions reductions. To date, no industrialized economy has presented emission reduction plans, as they were supposed to do, at the end January 2010. Neither have LDCs. It shows that the COP15 approach has led negotiations into a dead end, where nobody is willing to give concessions, if others don't move first.

The conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen has reasserted a few concepts. All countries must be involved in fight against climate change. Everybody must give its contribution, and the solution cannot be left to voluntary initiative of individual countries. Addressing climate change comes at a cost.

But it can't be 200 actors deciding what to do. It makes sense to restrict the number of key players to the major powers, and then aggregate the others. Europe could have shown strength in unity by sticking to its plan of a 20% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2020. However, when push came to shove, it made a show of its disunity in Copenhagen. European countries had better mend their ways, if the EU is to emerge as a key negotiator in climate policy.

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