The Arab Spring and Its Blossoms

The Arab Spring is the name given to the enormous wave of protest that shakes the countries of the Maghreb and the Middle East. Starting last December, protest has given way to veritable revolutions, as in the case of Tunisia and Egypt, full-scale revolts, as in Yemen, Syria and Bahrain, and civil wars, as Libya. What these unprecedented events of social protest have in common is the contagion-effect and the determining role of social networks as coordinating elements of mobilization. In spite of the violent response by established authorities, protests were either able to swiftly overthrow governments or maintain steady pressure on what are now hard-pressed leaders. These revolts constitute a clear historical break with the past.
The root causes of unrest are to be found in the growing malcontent of Arab populations vis-à-vis economic decline, widespread poverty, income inequality, and, last but foremost, systematic negation of fundamental freedoms. Malcontent is not an absolute, but it is relative to the ability to imagine an alternative world. Internet is likely to have provided educated youth with a window on the world, through which they could appraise the misery of their condition. Protest thus had also a strong psychological component. And it was easier for the youth to break with the past and feel indignation and resentment that were amplified through collective agency.
Western countries welcomed these developments, offering political and financial, and sometimes even military backing to the civilian population. Their aim is to reach political stabilization as soon as possible, by opening dialogue with the new governments. Many European countries have strong economic interests in the area and want stable trade relations with the newly emerging Maghreb. The foreign policy of the European Union has however been unduly timid with respect to the initiatives of individual country members.
Economic prospects are certainly positive. The region is strongly integrated in economic terms. The macroeconomic fundamentals are good and improving. Their degree of integration with international economic community should now grow.

Many have spoken of a process of democratization, pointing to the fact that in all cases the targets of protest have been authoritarian governments, characterized by high levels of corruption and violation of human and civil rights. But it could be premature to say that these countries are irreversibly bound to become politically and socially democratic. It can be already seen that a social dynamic is emerging where there are contending cultural, political and religious forces. The future of these countries will never resemble their recent past and the whole society is permeated by currents of political and cultural renewal. The new governments will have to take into account the interests of minorities, to redistribute resources more equitably, and, most critically, will have to face a new middle class emboldened by recent events and strongly proud of its role in achieving political change. The new governments will thus have to come to terms with continued criticism and strong political pressure coming from civil society.